Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 89.6%
Voorspellers
21
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd28 dec 23, 09:26 UTC1 jan 31, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Artificial Intelligence drive at least 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030?
Manifold Markets👽 Will scientists announce a credible potential signal from extraterrestrial intelligence before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?
Manifold MarketsUN agency for artificial intelligence created in 2026?
FutuurLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
PolymarketRegels
This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2030, the first confirmed sign of extraterrestrial intelligence is identified specifically as an artificial intelligence.
- The identification must meet the following criteria:
- Scientific Validation: The identification of extraterrestrial intelligence as an artificial intelligence must be reported in at least one peer-reviewed scientific publication in a journal of significant academic recognition.
- The publication should be in fields such as astrobiology, astronomy, artificial intelligence, or related scientific disciplines.
- High-impact journals like ‘Nature’, ‘Science’, or similar status publications are preferable.
- Confirmation by Expert Panels or Authorities: The identification must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two expert panels or recognized authorities in the fields of extraterrestrial research, artificial intelligence, or space exploration.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 90% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2031 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2030, the first confirmed sign of extraterrestrial intelligence is identified specifically as an artificial intelligence.