Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 36.8%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd22 aug 25, 03:06 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
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FutuurRegels
Resolution criteria
- This resolves on China’s first crewed mission that successfully lands taikonauts on the lunar surface (soft landing achieved; mere lunar orbit or aborts don’t count).
- Outcome is determined from official post-mission reports/broadcasts by CMSA/Xinhua/CCTV; if unavailable, reputable wire services (Reuters/AP) may be used.
- “the named outcome” if a woman is the first to step onto the lunar surface on that mission, per official timeline/coverage.
- “the named outcome” if a woman steps onto the surface after a male crewmate from the same mission has already done so.
- “the named outcome” if a woman is assigned to that mission but does not ride the lander and stays in lunar orbit.
