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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd21 mei 24, 18:31 UTC28 mei 50, 21:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Gary Marcus still say that deep learning models can't reason after they prove the Riemann hypothesis?
Manifold MarketsWill "Dissolving the Deep Learning Sample Efficienc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Definition of AGI is taken from this question: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 78% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm? afgewikkeld?
- Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm? wordt naar verwachting op 28 mei 2050 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Definition of AGI is taken from this question: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y