Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window?
TechOne-OffRuimtevaartWetenschap2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 57%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 20 minuten geleden
31 aug 26, 13:19 UTC31 dec 28, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Description:
- ESA's Rosalind Franklin rover mission (ExoMars) is currently baselined for launch in the September–December 2028 Mars transfer window, using a NASA-procured Falcon Heavy from Cape Canaveral.
- The program has slipped multiple times before (2018 → 2020 → 2022 → 2028), so this asks whether the current baseline holds.
- This market resolves YES if the Rosalind Franklin spacecraft launches on its way to Mars at any point within the 2028 Mars launch opportunity (i.e., before the window closes).
- This market resolves NO if, before the 2028 window closes, ESA or NASA officially announces the mission has slipped past the 2028 window (e.g., pushed to 2031 or later), or if the mission is cancelled, or if no launch occurs by 2028.
- Resolution source: Official statements from ESA (esa.int) and/or NASA, or a successful launch confirmed via public tracking (e.g., NASA Launch Services Program, SpaceX launch manifest).
