Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
AIOne-Off1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 84.3%
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Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd29 apr 26, 15:03 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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PolymarketOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRegels
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM naturalist is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markten
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- 24u volume
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+3 extra uitkomsten
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- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
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- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
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- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,3 mln.
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+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 84% per 11 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.