Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 99%
Voorspellers
40
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd21 jan 25, 23:41 UTC2 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Manifold MarketsAt the start of 2027, which global catastrophic risk organisations will Giving What we Can facilitate donations to?
Manifold MarketsWill a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen to OpenAI by 1st January 2029
Manifold MarketsWill scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any significant technological developments after 2100?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This resolves to YES if we are confident that DeepSeek's r1 or DeepSeek's v3 would have been held responsible for a catastrophic risk, anywhere in the world, as it would have been judged by the vetoed SB 1047.
- Future versions of r1 or v3 (including something like r1.5 or v3.1) DO count towards this, but anything labeled r2 or higher, or v4 or higher, does not.
- This resolves to NO if that does not happen.
- This resolves early to NO if DeepSeek or others have released new models such that it is essentially impossible for the event to take place, AND the market is trading reliably at <5%, and someone actually notifies me of this.
- If we are actively uncertain if this event happened, this resolves to my best estimate % chance it happened - which will be the market price if I think market is reasonable and not manipulated.
- I will likely not answer ANY clarification questions, period, after my recent experiences.
