Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 91.1%
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd14 mrt 26, 21:10 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What is the next country to leave European Union:?
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FutuurWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Poland officially completes its withdrawal from the European Union (per Article 50 of the TEU) before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution requires either a ratified withdrawal agreement or the expiration of the two-year notification period.
- The market resolves to NO if Poland remains a member state through December 31, 2029.
- Market Background: The 2026 Crisis
- While the 2023 elections brought a pro-EU coalition to power under Donald Tusk, the political landscape shifted dramatically following the June 2025 Presidential Election.
