Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 80.6%
Voorspellers
37
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd2 nov 23, 21:26 UTC2 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill someone write the book "Paul Christiano and the Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
Manifold MarketsWill Paul Christiano play Starcraft 2 again and place as Gold League or higher by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Paul Christiano become a father by EOY 2031? #ChristianoBabby
Manifold MarketsWill the next elected US president be a woman?
PolymarketWill Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExRegels
Must be in relation to Paul's role in AI Safety, and must be a standing US president
- Resolves YES on any conclusive evidence that this has happened
