Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Verouderd14 jul 26, 11:19 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
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KalshiRegels
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-28.1pt48%
- 1530+0.1pt4%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 272,1K
- 24u volume
- € 73,7K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.1pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-1.8pt15.8%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,6 mln.
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt81%
+9 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt86%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,78%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- Google39%
- Microsoft32%
- SpaceXAI22%
+10 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 31,6K
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude+1.0pt88.3%
- Gemini+3.0pt4.5%
- ChatGPT-5.0pt1.8%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 41,7K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 93% per 15 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will "Our response to Séb Krier on Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.