Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 98.9%
Voorspellers
65
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd15 feb 24, 09:06 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?
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PolymarketRegels
Resolves No if any of the following actions occur:
- Keir Starmer fails to form a parliamentary majority in the 2024 election as seen on Wikipedia (2019 equivalent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election)
- Keir Starmer resigns or is deposed by a vote of no confidence before the next General Election is scheduled to be held (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).
- Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If a general election is held before 2024 and Keir Starmer maintains his parliamentary majority, the question will resolve to a yes.
- If he loses his parliamentary majority in an early election, the question will resolve to a no.