Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Midden-OostenGeopolitiekOne-Off3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 70.5%
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd15 jun 25, 01:06 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
- the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
- The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year.
- That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
- This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).