Will "International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction E..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffPolitiek1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 85.7%
Voorspellers
2
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd15 mei 26, 09:09 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsU.S. gov/any American placed on trial in international court for violation of international law relating to war in Iran?
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate winner?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiWho will control the House?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction Either is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.