Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 63.9%
Voorspellers
8
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd28 jan 24, 17:54 UTC2 jan 61, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk spend a year in outer space?
Manifold Marketswill human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRegels
Must be a manned mission to the Outer Solar System (beyond orbit of Jupiter)
- Must be achieved before 2061
- Humans do not need to step foot on a solid object in the Outer Solar System, but must enter orbit around a celestial object in that region (gas giant planets or asteroid)
Open markten
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 103,1K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Totaal volume
- € 57,4K
- 24u volume
- € 57,4K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 817,9K
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 64% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns? afgewikkeld?
- Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2061 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Must be a manned mission to the Outer Solar System (beyond orbit of Jupiter)