Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 70.5%
Voorspellers
39
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd22 apr 23, 04:22 UTC1 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the FDA approve VERVE-102?
KalshiThe FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve Viagra as a treatment for Alzheimer's before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI that diagnoses patients better than an average doctor prior to 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
KalshiWill the FDA approve retatrutide?
KalshiRegels
Capabilities: take history, create treatment plan, prescribe medications, order tests, etc. all without human intervention or approval.
- Covers >50% of typical primary care volume.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 71% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Capabilities: take history, create treatment plan, prescribe medications, order tests, etc. all without human intervention or approval.