Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
One-OffSociety & Culture3jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 62.9%
Voorspellers
66
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 minuten geleden
13 dec 22, 07:27 UTC1 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the Americans mog the world at cricket, within this decade?
Manifold MarketsWill trump say or write "effective altruism"?
Manifold MarketsWill the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
Manifold MarketsWill "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolves subjectively.
- What this might include is a noticeable split into e.g. longtermist and neartermist.
- For example, with a large (>10%) minority of members of either groups stopping to identify as part of broader EA generally.
- Open to hashing out more objective criteria.
Open markten
Society & Culture
KALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.8 million96%
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.9 million89%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 18K
- 24u volume
- € 5,9K
KALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 70 million pounds66%
- Above 75 million pounds44%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,5K
- 24u volume
- € 2,6K
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-6.5pt72.3%
- Yes+6.5pt27.7%
- Totaal volume
- € 20K
- 24u volume
- € 667,2
POLYMARKETIs Earth flat?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Totaal volume
- € 50,4K
- 24u volume
- € 571,9
FORECASTEXWill University of Michigan rank first for public universities in 2027?
- No94%
- Yes6%
- Totaal volume
- € 522,2
- 24u volume
- € 522,2
FORECASTEXWill Harvard tuition exceed $61,000 in 2026?
- Yes98%
- No2%
- Totaal volume
- € 522,2
- 24u volume
- € 522,2
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- League City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?
- MrBeast: 1 Billion subscribers
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Hermès Kelly: Highest auction sale price this year
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 63% per 17 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade? afgewikkeld?
- Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves subjectively.