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Verouderd31 okt 23, 16:04 UTC2 jan 30, 06:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsReal-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support cryonics / brain-emulation-related projects, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- See these EA & Lesswrong forum tags for descriptions of what I mean by brain-emulation and cryonics, respectively.
- Note that research into the fundamental nature of consciousness and questions of digital sentience doesn't count (this has its own question).
- Here I am just looking for funding technical progress towards brain preservation / emulation.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
- This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 211K
- 24u volume
- € 110,5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 21,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 61% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support cryonics / brain-emulation-related projects, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.