Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 90.4%
Voorspellers
155
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd31 okt 23, 06:40 UTC1 jan 50, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?
Manifold MarketsBy end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Manifold MarketsIndia meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiUS meets its climate goals?
KalshiEU meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiRegels
If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES.
- Otherwise NO after close.
- 10% reduction might mean any one or mix of factors:
- outright deaths
- decrease in fertility causing population decline w/in timeframe
- reduction in population replacement curves, over the global average
Open markten
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 18,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 916K
- 24u volume
- € 1,5K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 863,6K
- 24u volume
- € 1K
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will climate change decimate humans before 2050??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 90% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will climate change decimate humans before 2050? afgewikkeld?
- Will climate change decimate humans before 2050? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2050 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will climate change decimate humans before 2050? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES.