Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJoe Biden 40%
Voorspellers
25
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd18 jun 24, 13:00 UTC19 jan 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.
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FutuurRegels
Both Biden and Trump get criticized for being quite old.
- This, among other problems, brings an increased risk for death from natural causes.
- The male life expectancy in the USA is 73.5 years, an age they both passed already.
- What is the chance they pass away from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
- This market resolves per person to YES once they die of natural causes, NO if they die from non natural causes, and NO if they are alive on the end of the next presidential term (20th of January 2029), whichever comes first.
