Will Austin Chen publicly regret hiring Caroline Ellison before 2028?
One-OffSamenleving en cultuur1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 97%
Voorspellers
18
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 43 minuten geleden
12 sep 26, 20:13 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
Manifold MarketsCaroline Ellison still working for Manifund by EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?
Manifold MarketsWill the One Piece manga finish by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketRegels
Austin is of course a founder of Manifold and author of such bangers as “In defense of SBF.”
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2028 (12:00 AM UTC), Austin Chen publicly expresses regret regarding his decision to hire Caroline Ellison at Manifund.
- Definition of "publicly regret": Austin Chen must explicitly state in a public forum that hiring Caroline Ellison was a "mistake," "error in judgment," or that he "regrets" the decision, or use substantially equivalent phrasing conveying that he wishes he had not hired her.
- Eligible Sources: Public posts, replies, or comments by Austin Chen on X/Twitter (e.g., via his handle @akrolsmir), his Substack newsletter The Fox Says, Manifold Markets, or direct quotes attributed to him in reputable news publications (such as Bloomberg or Business Insider).
- If Caroline Ellison is terminated or resigns from Manifund without Austin Chen publicly stating that the original hiring decision was a mistake or source of regret, this market will not resolve YES.
