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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd25 mei 26, 17:03 UTC1 jan 28, 02:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsLargest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho IPOs first?
MyriadWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
PolymarketWho IPOs first?
MyriadRegels
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.
- The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights.
- Just announcements wouldn't count.
- By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models.
- I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
Open markten
Crypto
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,3 mln.
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.9pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+32.5pt87%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 3pm EDT?
- $78,200 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $75,300 or above99%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 319,8K
- 24u volume
- € 299,2K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
- 70,000+0.4pt100%
- 72,000+0.6pt100%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 61% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.