Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 60.9%
Voorspellers
7
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 20 uur geleden
Verouderd25 mei 26, 17:03 UTC1 jan 28, 02:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsA top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
PolymarketWill MP (the original creator) consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.
- The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights.
- Just announcements wouldn't count.
- By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models.
- I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
