Waarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 23:23 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods 69.6%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd11 jul 26, 22:59 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- Each option in this independent multiple-choice market will resolve to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specific criteria are met by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 UTC.
- “Well-known researcher” means an academic or industrial research scientist with a track record of active publication in their field lasting at least three years who is well-respected in their community OR has an H-index of at least 15.
- This is a broad subjective definition but is meant to exclude eg. student projects, independent lone wolves who only publish to arXiv, etv.
- This researcher must not be a collaborator of the original paper authors.
- “Global workspace” means representations describable using J-lens-like techniques OR representations that act functionally similar to the representations described by Anthropic that carry broad domain-general applicability