Will another UN member state leader holds any other UN state leader or former leader in captivity in 2026?
Amerikaanse politiekOne-OffLatijns-Amerika2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 16:20 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 76.7%
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 14 uur geleden
Verouderd5 jan 26, 02:05 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will be the next UN Member state?
Manifold MarketsWill A.I. technology lead to regime change and /or state collapse in a UN member state by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill a nation in Europe which is not currently a full UN member state gain that status by 2035.
Manifold MarketsWill Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?
Manifold MarketsFall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
PolymarketVenezuela leader end of 2026?
PolymarketRegels
excluding Trump holding Maduro, will there be another one this year?
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on pairwise combinations of captors and captives:
- If the same leader holds multiple different leaders captive, each new pairing counts as a separate instance
- If a successor to a previously captured leader is held (and sufficiently well-established), that counts as a new instance
- Holding former leaders (e.g., former U.S. presidents) also counts
- Capturing multiple subordinates or acting officials under one regime does not clearly satisfy the criteria
