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Verouderd15 jul 26, 20:56 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Announcing the Corrigibility Research Fund" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post An analysis of AI-generated content at the Mechanistic Interpretability Workshop is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 81% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.