Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 76.3%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd16 dec 23, 23:19 UTC2 jan 31, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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Manifold MarketsWhich of the following will be true about the next major AI breakthrough? (after test-time compute)
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KalshiRegels
To elaborate on the “solely responsible” part, training data created by humans is permitted, but the AI must create a novel structure or insight with human assistance limited to inititalization and prompting.
- The AI itself cannot simply BE the breakthrough, and the breakthrough must go beyond the structure of the AI that creates it.
- This question resolves to YES if an AI has created a significant breakthrough in AI by the start of 2031, otherwise it resolves to NO.