Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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Wanneer wordt Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? afgewikkeld?

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2027 afgewikkeld.

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Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+16.1pt46.1%
• Claude-14.9pt45%
• ChatGPT-0.9pt7.2%

+5 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 14,3 mln.

24u volume

€ 202,6K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+2.5pt99%
• OpenAI+0.6pt1%
• Alibaba0%

+18 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+17.0pt53.1%
• Anthropic-17.0pt39.8%
• OpenAI-0.6pt5.1%

+12 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+4.0pt32%
• $2.0–$2.25T-1.1pt22.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T-1.8pt15.5%

+7 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-1.0pt95%
• December 15,+1.0pt93%
• November 30,88%

+15 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

• <$1T-9.1pt21%
• $1.25T–$1.5T+1.9pt19%
• $1.5T–$1.75T+0.5pt18%

+5 extra uitkomsten

• Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 28, 2026
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Google market share this week
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• DeepSeek market share this week
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?