Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingAI research completely automated by April 2028 45%
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd31 mrt 26, 03:47 UTC31 mrt 28, 03:40 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWithin the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Manifold MarketsIf Robert F Kennedy Jr serves under Trump, will he get fired or forced to resign within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsWill I win the lottery within the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Eliezer Yudkowsky retweeted @deredleritt3r's summary of the state of AI research:
- You don't truly understand the magnitude of the potential impact of powerful AI on the world unless you are aware, and have fully internalized, that senior leadership and most researchers at the frontier labs actually believe the following:
- Existing AI is already significantly speeding up AI research.
- Very soon (this year), AI will very likely take over ALL aspects of AI research other than generation of novel research ideas.
- Soon (within the next 2 years), AI will very likely take over ALL aspects of AI research, period.
- This means hundreds of thousands of GPUs working 24/7 to discover novel ideas at the level of, or better than, the likes of Alec Radford, Ilya Sutskever, etc.