Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 94.7%
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd17 jun 26, 00:31 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolves according to: Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
- The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient.
- Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself.
Vergelijking van voorspellingsbronnen
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket]?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 95% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket] afgewikkeld?
- Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket] wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket] afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves according to: Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
- Waar wordt Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket] nog meer aangeboden?
- Dezelfde vraag wordt ook aangeboden op Polymarket.