Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?
One-OffAIRegelgeving2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 86%
Voorspellers
38
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 49 minuten geleden
Vertraagd23 mei 24, 13:04 UTC25 mei 29, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
Tyler Cowen linked to this clarification of his claims: https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872
- It included this: Will we ever see another significant protest calling for a 6 month pause on AI development of frontier models? Highly doubt it.
- Resolves YES if there is such a protest, or there is indeed such a pause.
- If it is a protest, it must call for either an indefinite or 6+ month pause.
- If it is an actual pause, it must last 6 months or be in place on the resolution date, and must include the most advanced AI labs (either 3+ most advanced, or all those within striking distance of the leader).
- Resolves NO if there is no such event.
