Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
SportOne-OffChessMacro & EconomyBusiness & Corporate1jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 92%
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd8 aug 26, 07:13 UTC1 jan 28, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWe're in an economically stagnant decade (2022-2032)
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk buy a major sports team before 2027?
KalshiCanada home price above C$700K in December?
KalshiBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Codename: LEAP
- Resolves YES if a model released after this market opened and before January 1, 2028 first appears on Epoch’s general Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard at least 9 points above the previous record.
- “Previous record” means the highest displayed central general-ECI score belonging to an earlier-released model.
- Confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not count.
- The score must be published by April 30, 2028.
- Ordinary later leaderboard recalculations do not undo a genuine first-published jump.
Open markten
SportsKALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle-1.0pt5.7%
+29 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 77,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 3,4 mln.
KALSHIInoue vs Adkar
- Hina Inoue99%
- Vaishnavi Adkar1%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,8 mln.
KALSHIAmgen Irish Open Winner
- Rory McIlroy+1.0pt14%
- Jon Rahm-0.2pt8%
- Tyrrell Hatton-0.5pt5%
+97 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHISekulic vs Matsuda
- Philip Sekulic93.1%
- Koki Matsuda6.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Bayern Munich+1.0pt15.1%
- Arsenal-1.0pt13.2%
+33 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: Alliance vs TYLOO (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- 1 Winner100%
- 2 Winner100%
- Match Winner100%
+21 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1 mln.
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Counter-Strike: 9z vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles R
- MVP Winner?
- Nflgame 26 SEP 09 Nesea
- MLB: Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers (Sep 9, 2026)
- Ogura vs Hong
- Amgen Irish Open End of Round 1 Leader
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles: Spread
- NFL 2026-27: Champion
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
- US Open Women's Singles Winner
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 92% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Codename: LEAP