Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
AIOne-Off2j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 20:40 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 95.7%
Voorspellers
57
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd31 aug 23, 19:40 UTC1 jan 29, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a widely read alternative to The Doors Of Stone written by AI released by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are: Penguin Random House
- HarperCollins
- Simon & Schuster
- The novel must be purported to be written by a human, but turn out to have been mostly* written by AI.
- What counts as "mostly" written by AI? As noted in the comments, it is unlikely that we would ever know exactly what percentage of the words in the final draft originated with the human author vs the AI, so there is a very high likelihood of considerable ambiguity.
- I will use my best judgement, taking into account opinions expressed in the comments, to resolve this fairly.