Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
AIOne-Off2jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 95.7%
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Verouderd31 aug 23, 19:40 UTC1 jan 29, 06:59 UTC
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The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are: Penguin Random House
- HarperCollins
- Simon & Schuster
- The novel must be purported to be written by a human, but turn out to have been mostly* written by AI.
- What counts as "mostly" written by AI? As noted in the comments, it is unlikely that we would ever know exactly what percentage of the words in the final draft originated with the human author vs the AI, so there is a very high likelihood of considerable ambiguity.
- I will use my best judgement, taking into account opinions expressed in the comments, to resolve this fairly.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 96% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are: Penguin Random House