Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopolitiekMiddle East22dManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 88.9%
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Verouderd31 jul 26, 03:43 UTC1 okt 26, 00:00 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it.
- A ceasefire counts even if it later collapses.
- The question is whether one takes effect inside the window - not whether it holds.
- RESOLUTION SOURCES (priority order):
- English Wikipedia, "2026 Iran war" - whether the article records a US-Iran ceasefire taking effect within the window
- Al Jazeera (aljazeera.com)
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 89% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 1 oktober 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it.