Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 73.3%
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 19 uur geleden
Verouderd1 jun 23, 06:49 UTC1 jan 27, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill China obtain an EUV machine?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRegels
As of 2023, China's artificial intelligence (AI) sector has achieved outsized success, with Chinese companies dominating the top five spots in a U.S. government ranking of the most accurate facial recognition technology producers.
- This success is attributed to the alignment of interests between AI technology and autocratic rulers, with AI being a fundamentally predictive technology and autocratic regimes known for collecting vast amounts of data1.
- The growth in FLOPs used for ML training over time has been substantial, with increasing access to cloud computing resources and declining costs contributing to this trend.
- Before January 1, 2027, will any media report a machine learning training run in China exceeding 10^26 FLOP?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2027, there is credible media reporting of a machine learning training run in China that exceeds 10^26 FLOP.