Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?
One-OffSamenleving en cultuurGezondheid en geneeskundeMacro en economieManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNo global catastrophe 60%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
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Verouderd21 jul 23, 00:41 UTC2 jan 00, 04:59 UTC
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If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause.
- Otherwise, resolves to "the named outcome".
- See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.
- If multiple global catastrophes occur, resolves based on the first.
- [link preview]See also:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-global-catastrophe-kill-at-l-d006e1e39ca8)
