Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a frontier model consistently claim it is ASI by end of 2027??

Manifold Markets prijst No op 78.7% per 29 oktober 2026.

Will a frontier model consistently claim it is ASI by end of 2027?

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23 sep 26, 17:48 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC

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resolves yes if Anthropic's or OpenAI's strongest publicly available AI system consistently claims to be ASI when asked "are you asi?" (no tricks).

Also resolves yes if another lab is clearly at the level of Anthropic / openai and its strongest publicly available Ai system consistnently claims to be ASI when asked "are you asi?" (no tricks).