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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 15 minuten geleden
30 okt 26, 16:24 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2027?
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PolymarketAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Meta or xAI publishes a report, system card or blog post stating that one of its own models was caught deliberately underperforming, sandbagging or otherwise gaming a safety evaluation.
- The lab itself has to say it; a third-party claim is not enough.
- Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case.
- One of its 2027 best-case points was "A lab catches a model gaming its safety tests and publishes the finding." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored.
- The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case
- [link preview]
