Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingGavin Newsom 89.7%+3.5ptKoploper van 47 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
157
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+3.5 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 minuten geleden
10 okt 23, 15:00 UTC17 jun 28, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom be the two frontrunners for the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Manifold MarketsWho will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
KalshiWho will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
PredictItWill a woman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
PredictItWho will run for the 2028 Democratic nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]
Manifold MarketsRegels
This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries will resolve YES.
- The criteria here are:
- The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.
Open markten
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 605,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 697,7K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 603,2 mln.
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 183,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 471,3K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prijst Gavin Newsom op 90% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? wordt naar verwachting op 17 juni 2028 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.