Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingGoogle 100%Koploper van 11 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
59
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd27 feb 26, 21:23 UTC31 dec 26, 21:19 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Insider Trading Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItWill Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketRegels
A member of the listed organization must be penalized.
- The action must be a substantial action, including a fine, ban from a prediction market, termination, demotion, etc. A warning is not sufficient.
- If any other regulator such as the SEC or CFTC takes significant action, also resolves YES.
- If an exchange takes action, also resolves YES.
- If a law enforcement branch makes an legitimate indictment or arrest, resolves YES.
- The enforcement action must take place from market open to EOY 2026.
Open markten
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 12,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 90,5K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt51%
- Before Oct 1, 202749%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-6.0pt41%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 4,8 mln.
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 202754%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 877K
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T+0.5pt18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt17.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 202795%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 6,5K
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets??
- Manifold Markets prijst Google op 100% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets? afgewikkeld?
- Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: A member of the listed organization must be penalized.