Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingAngela Rayner is not Prime Minister at the end of 2026 99%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
4
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd15 mei 26, 13:10 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Combined conditional market on Rayner becoming PM and who she picks as Chancellor of the Exchequer if she does.
- Please only add Labour MPs as options.
- (Use the "Other" option if you think a non-Labour MP (other than Burnham) might get the job.) I don't think there are any circumstances under which this market can resolve NA.
- If you have an edge case that I haven't covered in the small print, please let me know.
- Resolves to "Current Role Holder" on this page:
- https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst Angela Rayner is not Prime Minister at the end of 2026 op 99% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Combined conditional market on Rayner becoming PM and who she picks as Chancellor of the Exchequer if she does.