Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls?
One-OffPolitiekVerkiezingEurope5mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingLabour 53.4%-4.2ptKoploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 29 minuten geleden
28 apr 26, 9:1331 dec 26, 10:06
Trends
Alleen virtueel geld, geen echt geldGeen financieel advies
Gekozen uitkomst
Conservatives14%
Volumetrend
$6108 jul4d aan data28 jul
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For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.
- This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
- If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other.
- If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
- Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
- If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place.