Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls?
One-OffPolitiekVerkiezingEuropa2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingOther 54.9%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+4.9 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd28 apr 26, 09:13 UTC31 dec 26, 10:06 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Second place in 2029 New York City Mayoral election?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Labour UK party win reelection in 2029?
Manifold MarketsNext leader out of power before 2027?
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Sweden
PolymarketRegels
For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.
- This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
- If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other.
- If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
- Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
- If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place.
