Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Tyler Cowen 100%Koploper van 28 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
15
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 20 uur geleden
Verouderd27 jan 25, 00:54 UTC31 dec 30, 21:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
Manifold MarketsWill AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF be released from prison before AGI is achieved
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
Please add answers!
- The term AGI is ambiguous and subjective.
- I want to try to figure out timelines by when prominent people in AI subjectively think we have achieved it.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Each person resolves YES if by EOY 2030, they state publicly that they believe AGI has been achieved.
- This need not refer to any AI system they are working on themselves, but any AI system in the world.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 241,3K
- 24u volume
- € 128K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 349,4K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst Tyler Cowen op 100% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Please add answers!