Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNick Bostrom 85.2%Koploper van 37 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd2 okt 25, 07:35 UTC30 dec 99, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will 10 or more people be alive on the moon at the end of 2034?
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PolymarketWill these people ever be FIDE world chess champion? (end mid 2044)
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PolymarketRegels
"We get ASI" = 1 January of the year before the first of the questions in this series to resolve YES (e.g. if https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 resolves NO and https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 resolves YES, this question resolves based on who is alive on 1 Jan 2024).
