Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJudge David J. Porter 96%Koploper van 3 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
3
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd8 sep 25, 18:37 UTC8 sep 27, 18:23 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
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KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- For each judge option, resolve YES if that judge votes for an outcome that leaves Kalshi protected from New Jersey enforcement in the Third Circuit appeal KalshiEX LLC v.
- Flaherty, No. 25-1922 (i.e., votes to affirm the district court’s preliminary injunction or otherwise grant relief in Kalshi’s favor).
- A concurrence or dissent explicitly taking Kalshi’s side counts as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- If the appeal is dismissed or mooted without a judge-by-judge merits vote, that option resolves N/A. Source of truth: the Third Circuit docket and the filed opinion.
Open markten
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Totaal volume
- € 12,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 220,4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-11.0pt40%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.4%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 105,1K
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+16.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+20.0pt66%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor??
- Manifold Markets prijst Judge David J. Porter op 96% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? afgewikkeld?
- Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? wordt naar verwachting op 8 september 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria