Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris this year?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingTina Kotek - Oregon Governor 91.9%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
13
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multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
-1.1 pts
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Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd30 sep 26, 05:31 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolves Yes if the listed candidate certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state.Outcome verified from Federal Election Commission, Maine Secretary of State, Oregon Secretary of Stateand other secretaries of states in the listed states.
- A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears.
- Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used.
- Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results.
- Shares are compared unrounded.