Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingMalaysia 100%Koploper van 14 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
48
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+13.2 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd12 dec 25, 02:21 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will at least 5 democratic countries other than Australia ban social media for kids under 16 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS bans social media for children in 2026?
KalshiWhich Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAustralia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the UK's social media ban take effect?
KalshiRegels
Resolves YES iff a social media ban is introduced for at least some teenagers (anyone, but not necessarily everyone, ages 13-19) in the relevant country by December 31st, 2026.
- The ban must encompass at least two social media sites.
- The ban must become law by EOY 2026 (not just announced).
- For this market, partial restrictions (e.g. limits on smartphone screen time or curfews) do not suffice.
- I am far from an expert in the current laws and restrictions in each of these countries, so there may be some edge cases.
- If there is a dispute, I will attempt to rule in the spirit of the question - whether there are new laws that a reasonable person would describe as a social media ban.
