Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore 2033 68.4%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
25
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
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Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd22 feb 26, 18:36 UTC1 jan 51, 07:59 UTC
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Winds of Winter released before 2027?
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KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin.
- Each threshold resolves YES if the book is officially published and available for purchase in any format (print, digital, or audio) through at least one major retailer (e.g., Amazon, Barnes & Noble, or equivalent) before the listed date.
- If the novel is split into multiple volumes, the first volume's publication date counts.
- A title change does not affect resolution as long as it is marketed as the sixth ASOIAF novel.
- Each threshold resolves NO if George R. R. Martin dies before the book's official publication date, even if a completed manuscript exists.
- Posthumous publication does not count.