Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingBefore 2030 66.2%Koploper van 5 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
4
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd31 aug 26, 19:37 UTC1 jan 31, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr37dY5YPRT6s56jY/thomas-kwa-s-shortform?commentId=Pwc2SmyPi9u3maSsd
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the date on which Thomas Kwa officially ceases to be an employee of OpenAI (assuming that he has already signed the contract).
- Definition of "leaving": "Leaving" is defined as the termination of his employment contract with OpenAI, whether due to resignation, quitting, or termination.
- An internal transfer to a different team within OpenAI does not count as leaving, but transferring to an external organization or spin-off does.
- (Example: going to the OpenAI foundation would be considered leaving).
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI??
- Manifold Markets prijst Before 2030 op 66% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? afgewikkeld?
- When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2031 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr37dY5YPRT6s56jY/thomas-kwa-s-shortform?commentId=Pwc2SmyPi9u3maSsd