Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2050 or later 17.5%Koploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd12 okt 23, 15:05 UTC2 jan 50, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
This market will resolve to the choice containing the year in which the New World Screwworm is eradicated from South America.
- This market is cause agnostic; if it happens via gene drive, larvae irradiation, pesticide application, etc it will resolve yes.
- I define "eradicated" as a documented reduction in screw worm infections by atleast 10000x compared to the current (2023) number of infections.
- Please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
- See this post for context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JWuPdMaPiNy7AD3AX/potentially-actionable-opportunity-eliminating-the-new-world
- [link preview]
