Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNot before 2027 97%Koploper van 14 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
41
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 4 uur geleden
Verouderd16 okt 23, 07:49 UTC31 dec 26, 13:29 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
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KalshiWill Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
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KalshiRegels
other = before 2024
- Will look at the stat page.
- If it reads 100k, resolves to the relevant bucket.
- I don't plan on doing detective work if it's manipulated.
- Having said that, if a considerable amount of traffic is fraudulent (e.g., 20%) I will possibly delay resolution to make necessary adjustments for blatant-bulk-manipulation.
- I'm not excluding alts, 10 person bot farms, whatever
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 132,8K
- 24u volume
- € 100,3K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 322,4K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders??
- Manifold Markets prijst Not before 2027 op 97% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders? afgewikkeld?
- When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: other = before 2024