Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNot before 2050 38.8%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
48
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd16 aug 25, 11:55 UTC1 jan 50, 10:49 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
When will China invade Taiwan
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
LimitlessWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Creating this market because I think the year by year probabilities in my other market are a bit off (at market creation 25% chance of an invasion in 2028 which is a US election year).
- This will resolve to the same date as the other market - have fun arbitraging! See the other market for more detailed resolution criteria.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar)(I did some initial trades on this market to bring the probabilities in line with the other market, but won't trade further expect to exit that position)
