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2030 81.9%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
41
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+4.6 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd11 aug 24, 16:42 UTC1 feb 31, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegels
At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.
- Resolves YES if I lose, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- On which years will I win?
- Some more details: I’m rated around 1900 FIDE, 2100 USCF.
- The game will be played at a rapid time control.
- I’ll select the LLM from the top 3 of the leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), or another benchmark if I believe it to be a better measure of general reasoning capabilities.
Open markten
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Totaal volume
- € 224,7K
- 24u volume
- € 160,5K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 344,9K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2030 op 82% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? afgewikkeld?
- When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? wordt naar verwachting op 1 februari 2031 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.